Oilsands production forecast cut by 280,000 bpd because of oil that is low

Oilsands production forecast cut by 280,000 bpd because of oil that is low

Imperial Oil’s Kearl oilsands task as well as its expansion stages assisted the company develop quarter production that is third.

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Another report predicting slow development in oilsands manufacturing on the next 5 years comes just like short-term bitumen economics took a change when it comes to even worse.

Northern Alberta manufacturing through the oilsands is anticipated to develop by 800,000 barrels each day to about 2.9 million bpd by 2020, think-tank IHS predicted in a report that is new. That’s down by 280,000 bpd through the 1.08 million bpd growth it predicted a year ago whenever globe oil prices had been doubly high.

Oilsands production forecast cut by 280,000 bpd as a result of oil that is low back again to movie

Kevin Birn, Calgary-based director for IHS Energy, said the forecast assumes oilsands tasks now under construction will undoubtedly be built despite low oil rates. He stated the forecast had not been paid off because Alberta elected an NDP federal government in might, despite its vow to examine royalties and implement greater carbon costs, neither is it impacted by continuing pipeline construction obstacles.

“Overall, the good features that underpinned oilsands development within the decade that is last intact: big resource base, proximity to big eating market and stable investment environment … but so can be some challenges that faced the industry even before the cost downturn, such as for example environmental concern, a brief history of money price escalation and market access,” he said.

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“Governments have actually always had an important part to play in oilsands development. This dates back into the first oilsands mine that involved governments from Alberta, Ontario and Canada. Now Alberta is reviewing oil and fuel financial terms, including GHG policy. It stays to be observed what the end result will be.”

Bitumen is a component that is major Western Canada choose, an exported blend of hefty and lighter oils, and its own pricing is frequently expressed as a discount to benchmark New York-traded western Texas Intermediate. That differential has widened within the last couple of weeks towards the point that is widest considering that the last half of 2014, in accordance with a report released Tuesday by analysts at Raymond James in Calgary.

“WCS now trades at a lot more than a $15 US per barrel discount to WTI, up from just $7.50 in ” the report notes, adding the June tightness was partly caused by forest fires that removed more than 200,000 bpd of oilsands from the market june. The differential was at the $10-12.50 prior to the woodland fires per barrel range.

The report adds that the price tag on condensate, a light petroleum product blended with bitumen to permit it to move in a pipeline, has remained strong and can probably stay a substantial expense for manufacturers even in the event the differentials bounce back as you expected.

June“As a result, realized bitumen pricing has been hit particularly hard, down about 50 per cent since early. We anticipate condensate pricing in Western Canada to keep reasonably strong, with continued development in oilsands manufacturing outstripping development in domestic condensate supplies,” said the report.

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RBC Dominion Securities analysts recently forecast production through the oilsands will expand from 2.37 million bpd this to 3.48 million bpd in 2020, down by 600,000 bpd from their 2014 forecast year. An early on forecast because of the Association that is canadian of Producers is nearer to the IHS quantity, predicting oilsands output will increase from 2.29 million bpd this current year to 3.08 million bpd by 2020.

Birn stated IHS estimates the break-even WTI oil cost into the quarter that is first experienced become at the least $95 US per barrel for an innovative new mining task and $70 United States for an innovative new in situ task. It absolutely was actually $48.57 in the 1st 3 months, increasing to $57.85 when you look at the quarter that is second.

On a running basis, current oilsands mines would need a typical $42 US per barrel cost and current steam-assisted gravity drainage in situ projects would want at the very least $30 to split also, IHS noted.

Longer-term, IHS expects oilsands growth to carry on. It stated the oilsands are economically competitive with resources such as deepwater and North american oil that is tight face pressures including task costs, timing of non-rail transport to brand new areas and moving financial terms in Alberta.

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